My thoughts on the current final four in college football:
First off, let me say that everything will play out and it will become clearer when its all said and done. Yes, there will still be debate between 4 and 5 and probably 6. The way it looks right now, it seems as though everyone will cry for a eight team playoff, but we've said that so many years with the BCS around this time of year. Yet, it always seemed to work out, and we only had 2 or 3 years where there was a legitimate argument that the final 2 were not the 2 best teams in the country by the end of the season. Things will work itself out.
However, since we can, let's look at the standings and see what the committee seems to award and/or punish.
Oregon jumped Florida State this week. Why? What makes Oregon better this week than last? Why is it they jumped them now? Only one game has been played since the last rankings. Why has a one lost team jumped an undefeated team? It is an important thing to look at, so we can understand what the committee looks for that makes a team have a strong or weak resume.
There's the complete bias way of looking at it with the so called "eye-test" which is why a lot of football experts and fans applauded using a committee over computers. I agree that having an eye test factor is nice and they can use computers to help sort out the mathematics of the ranking system as well. I think it will work in the end.
If we had to go purely by "eye-test," it' clear bias by each individual,obviously. What type of style appeals to you(spread, power, defense, pass, run, etc.) as well as regional bias. With that being said my own bias "eye-test" would say Alabama, Arizona State, Auburn, Baylor, Mississippi State, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Oregon, and TCU(alphabetical order) look better than Florida State(and well Notre dame too because they should have beaten them at FSU if the refs get the call right). Problem is Florida State hasn't lost. Auburn and Ole Miss have lost twice, no way you can put them ahead of FSU.
Then comes the one lost teams. Well, who'd they lose to and where and who'd they beat and where? Alabama lost to #10 Ole Miss on the road and has a few quality wins. I can see them being in the conversation with FSU. TCU has a road loss to #7 Baylor with a few quality wins as well. I can see them in the conversation too.
Ohio State lost at home to unranked VT and only has one quality win. Arizona State lost at home to #11 UCLA and has a couple quality wins. Oregon lost at home to #14 Arizona with a few quality wins. I don't see any of these teams deserving of being with FSU. They all of some quality wins, but these three all lost at home. FSU hasn't lost anywhere(thanks to the ref in ND game, but at this point that doesn't matter)
Baylor lost at a now unranked but good West Virginia and has some quality wins too, but I don't see them with Alabama or TCU competing to take over FSU.
Now, this is all what I think and what I see. I see lots of quality wins on the road and at home by all these teams. So the tiebreakers really come down to whom you lost to and where. As well as my bias "eye test" my top ten would look like this:
1 Mississippi State
2 Florida State
3 Alabama
4 TCU
5 Oregon
6 Baylor
7 Ohio State
8 Arizona State
9 Auburn
10 Ole Miss
Here's why: As much as I want to drop Florida State like the committee did, I find it hard to drop a team that has a couple quality wins and is still undefeated. If they had 0 or 1 quality win than it would be easy to drop them and they probably wouldn't have been there in the first place. Honestly, though, I can see FSU, Alabama, and TCU in any of those spots 2-4. Oregon with a lose at home is out of the top 4 in the current standings to me.
My problem with the committee right now is they have shown that they favor top 25 wins over the loses. Since Oregon has 3 current top 25 wins, they seem to have favored them over all the other one loss teams and now even an undefeated FSU. In this last week, Oregon beat Utah, so they picked up a third top 25 win(that's the main thing that changed this week). So, where everyone else is mostly 2-1 in top 25, Oregon is 3-1. They forget the loss and where it took place. They are favoring the pure top 25 wins. What I see wrong with that, is that a lot of those teams have beaten quality teams that sit just outside of the top 25. So they lost a huge tally next there top 25 wins column because a team they beat sits at 26 and not say 23 like Utah is for Oregon's case. So I look at wins against Oklahoma and West Virginia the same as wins against Utah right now. Where the committee seems to just see a tally next to top 25 victories or not.
The committee isn't using their "eye-test" capabilities has much as they should and more at just straight up top 25 wins to be the determining factor and/or strength of schedule. Strength of schedule is important, but only to a certain extent. If someone like FSU has proven themselves against 2 or 3 quality teams and beaten the other teams on their schedule. They have done what they can, don't punish them for beating the teams they were given. I'm not saying that if Marshall would have won out, they should be in, because they played no one close to quality opposition like FSU or any power 5 conference really.
The committee is awarding Oregon for playing Michigan State. I think its important to schedule out of conference power teams, and guess what FSU tried that with Oklahoma State, but they just happen to be on a down year and are 5-4 this year. Hard to predict that 4 years out when most these games are scheduled. SEC is the conference that needs to schedule harder opposition, but Auburn and Alabama did do better with that this year playing KSU and West Virginia. SEC West is about as good as the NFL right now, so that's a gauntlet to play through either way.
In the end, its fun to talk about, but really all this means nothing until the end of the season. About 7 teams control their destiny to make the top four. Ohio State is probably the only one that doesn't in the top 8. Their destiny may be how Nebraska does until the Big Ten championship game(speaking of, Nebraska has one loss and a lot of quality games ahead), and even then probably still need a loss from someone unexpected ahead of them too. A part of me likes the committee rankings every week, so we can get a sense of what things look like, but I also think it would be better to just wait until the end of the year when all the resumes are complete. Fun to talk about though!
